UPDATE: Gavin Newsom increases his lead, as Villaraigosa, once with a 12-point lead over Allen, is now just three points ahead, with John Chiang and John Cox still at 4 and 4 respectively.
RELATED: Google Trends works for national and state campaigns, but will it apply to the California Assembly District 15 Race? Zennie62Media takes a look.
The headlines are all over (see The Sacramento Bee and The LA Times) that John H. Cox, Republican candidate for California Governor and a business man, has risen out of the blue (or more appropriately the red) and into second place to the front-runner Democratic California Liutenant Governor Gavin Newsom.
In a UC Berkeley Intergovernmental Studies (also called “Berkeley-IGS”) poll comparing GOP and Dems vying for the seat currently held by Jerry Brown, and conducted April 16th – April 22nd, Fox received 18 percent of the votes, Newsom was at a comfortable 30 percent, and Assemblyman Travis Allen, the other California GOP participant, got 16 percent, while former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) California State Treasurer and former Controller John Chiang (D) and the former California Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin posted lousy results of 9, 7, and 4 percent, respectively.
So, from that Berkeley-IGS Poll, the Democrats running for CA Governor are in a big pile of California horse patoody, right? President Donald Trump’s talking up John Cox has really change the game, right? This John Cox guy’s suddenly a house-hold name, and may be the greatest Republican Governor since Arnold Schwartzenegger, right? Well, according to data from Google Trends, those ideas are a fantasy, and the results of the Berkeley-IGS Poll are a laughable joke.
Google Trends has emerged from it’s obscure place of popularity only with data-hungry vloggers and bloggers, starting in 2007 (and this author has pointed to changes in Google News over the years with some consistency, though upon reflection has slacked off some of late, has several useful posts from, for example 2011, and on the removal of “Hot Topics”
In recent years, and starting with the 2016 election, Internet marketers (yes, Internet marketers, not political pollsters) started to wonder how Google Trends did in predicting elections. As it turned out, not just OK, but really, really well. According to Jim Stewart of StewArt media, Google Trends correctly picked the winner of the U.S. Presidential Election each time, and going all the way back to 2004. Basically, the question is, who’s ahead on the three to five days before the election to be held?
In short, Google Trends was a geek tool, but now it’s a reliable tool for use in politics, but not used by politicians. Before we get to why that may be, let’s find out how the candidates did from Google Trends’ perspective.
Well, the short report is that it’s Allen and not Cox the Democrats have to worry about. Have a look:
A Google Trends comparison between Newsom, Cox, Allen, Villaraigosa, and Chiang, (with the timeline set at 12 months) show all of them beat and are ahead of Fox by healthy search intensity margins: Gavin has 95, Allen 35, Villaraigosa 28, and John Chiang 21 – John Cox is at 6. In fact, John Cox’s scoring is so poor, and during a period where the polling would imply that he’s well searched on Google, that in a separate comparison, Delaine Eastin is beating him 90 to 72.
But the news here is Assemblyman Travis Allen is the real second place candidate, and not Fox. This means that, come this Tuesday June 5th, we should expect Allen to perform in such a way that he could finish second, behind Gavin Newsom. And considering that Assemblyman Allen has traded places, second and third with Villaraigosa, the Former Mayor of LA could wind up in the second spot, after all.
But one thing’s for sure: it won’t be Fox. Now for that question why Google Trends isn’t referred to by political specialists, it’s simply because many political consultants and media types at the state level aren’t tech-savvy. The experience of this blogger is that many candidates don’t really understand how to employ SAAS tools like Google Trends, and so don’t know to seek out political specialists who do. There’s an over-reliance on traditional off-line polling that tends to crowd out the idea of using tools common to the field of Internet marketing. Yet, from content to social media to video, the future of each candidate depends on what they do online as well as offline. This is something Gavin Newsom’s people missed.
They seemed to think that just a series of ads would move the recognition needle for Fox. Well, it did, but not by as much as poll reports would imply. The reason is, there’s no controversial subject that Cox is attached to, such that his Google Trends numbers would skyrocket. To make that happen requires a campaign that has, as part of its overall approach, coordinated online content separate but related to the ads and speeches. Newsom didn’t do that, and there’s no time left to get that going.
Oakland News Now Recent Posts
- Las Vegas Raiders Vs Dolphins Won’t Be Aired On Some Tv Market In California By Eric Pangilinan September 23, 2021
- Las Vegas Raiders Defense Is The Key To Victory In Week By Eric Pangilinan September 23, 2021
- RecallOakland.com Website For Stupid Idea Of Recalling Mayor Schaaf Months Before She’s Termed Out September 23, 2021
- Nintendo Reveals Cast For The Mario Movie in 2022. Yes This Is Real, By: Vinny Lospinuso September 23, 2021
- BREAKING: Arrest Warrant Issued for Brian Laundrie in Gabby Petito’s Death September 23, 2021
- Las Vegas Raiders Tom Flores To Receive Hall Of Fame Ring At Allegiant Stadium By Eric Pangilinan September 23, 2021
- Justin Fields First NFL Start Will Come Against The Browns | Pat McAfee Reacts September 23, 2021
- Coach Bradley, Coach Olson, Denzel Perryman and Kenyan Drake Presser – 9.23.21 | Las Vegas Raiders September 23, 2021
- Supermodel Linda Evangelista Has Been “Brutally Disfigured” by Procedure Done 5 Years Ago | PEOPLE September 23, 2021
- Author Jameis1of1 Talks About Jameis Winston And Gives Thoughts On Pats vs Saints Game September 23, 2021
- Kate Scott Is Philadelphia’s First Female Sports Broadcaster – That’s No Accident – Here’s Why September 23, 2021
- Mom Gets Surprise Giant Gift Box From Rocket Mortgage Sent Via UPS September 23, 2021
- How U.C. Berkeley Beat Harvard And Yale To Become The Best College In America | Forbes September 23, 2021
- Judge Orders UC Berkeley To Freeze Enrollment After Neighborhood Group Sues September 23, 2021
- Save 1921 Walnut St. Berkeley – Tenants Protest Demolition, UC Berkeley, Mayor Jesse Arreguin Actions September 23, 2021
- 30 Weirdest Things Ever Caught On Security Cameras & CCTV ! September 23, 2021
- The Raiders Are LETHAL With Derek Carr and Jon Gruden in Sync | Tiki and Tierney September 23, 2021
- Melvin Van Peebles on Bill Cosby Allegations; Being a Pioneer September 23, 2021
- Unstoppable: Melvin Van Peebles, Gordon Parks, and Ossie Davis in Conversation (2005) September 23, 2021
- Groundbreaking Filmmaker Melvin Van Peebles Has Died September 23, 2021
- R.I.P Mario Van Peebles Dad, Speaks On How His Father Melvin Van Peebles Died September 23, 2021
- 2021 09 21 Meeting with DSP UC Berkeley Students with Disabilities Coalition PART 2 September 23, 2021
- Nobel Prize Medal Presented to UC Berkeley Chemistry Professor Jennifer Doudna at her Berkeley Home September 23, 2021
- Oakland school district votes on vaccine mandate September 23, 2021
- Lakefront Home For Sale – 195 Honey Ln Fayetteville GA 30214 September 23, 2021
- Home For Sale – Introducing, 260 Camelot Fayetteville, Georgia September 23, 2021
- Home For Sale 3800 California Street Oakland, CA | ColdwellBankerHomes.com September 23, 2021
- Oakland Officer, Suspect Wounded In Shootout; Suspect Surrenders After Tense Standoff September 23, 2021
- Weather Forecast Oakland, California ▶ Oakland weather Forecast 09/23/2021 September 23, 2021
- COVID Vaccinations: Oakland Unified School District Board Approves COVID Vaccination Mandate For Students September 23, 2021
- Oakland Unified School District Board Discusses Vaccine Mandate for Students, Staff September 23, 2021
- Woman Wanted For Pulling Gun On Chipotle Worker In Philadelphia September 23, 2021
- Go Fund Me For Raider Nation’s Black Hole Rob Rivera’s Funeral By Rachel Rivera September 23, 2021
- Gabby Petito case: Crews use new tools in the search for Brian Laundrie September 23, 2021
- Hey EBX & Hella Coastal – Brothers Brewing Co Was Oakland’s First Black Brewery, And Then There Was Pican Restaurant September 23, 2021
- Las Vegas Raiders NFL Pro football Focus Ranked Maxx Crosby Number 1 Edge Rusher By Eric Pangilinan September 22, 2021
- Raiders Steve Wisniewski Nominated For 2022 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class, By: Vinny Lospinuso September 22, 2021
- Brian Laundrie search: What led police to the Carlton Reserve? September 22, 2021
- Laundrie neighbor says she saw Brian after his return September 22, 2021
- Former Chief Medical Examiner Dr. Michael Baden On Gabby Petito’s Autopsy Findings September 22, 2021