Is Bernie Sanders More Likely To Win Super Tuesday States With High Underemployment Rates?

Bernie Sanders
(Last Updated On: March 4, 2020)

Ahead of “Super Tuesday”, is there a correlation between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ 2020 Primary Election wins and the rate of underemployment? So far, a definitive pattern has not completely emerged, but the results point to that possible outcome.

First, the “Underemployment Rate” refers to those working part time who are qualified to work a full time job. Second, the list below is of those states (and two regions) of all listed where the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) Underemployment Rate is over the national average of 7.2 percent.

Bernie Sanders biggest win was in Nevada, which happens to be on this list. By contrast, his tie with South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg was in New Hampshire, and his loss to Biden was in South Carolina, and his loss to Buttigieg was in Iowa. Nevada’s Underemployment Rate is 7.6 percent – by contrast, New Hampshire and Iowa are at 5.2 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.

So, from the 2020 Primary Election outcome so far, there is a direct correlation between the Underemployment Rate, and the chance of a Bernie Sanders 2020 Primary win.

Here are the states that have above average Underemployment Rate:

Alaska – 10.1
Arizona – 9.3
California – 8.3
Connecticut – 7.9
Delaware – 7.5
District of Columbia – 8.6
Illinois – 7.4
Kentucky – 7.7
Louisiana – 8.6
Michigan – 7.5
Mississippi – 10.0
Montana – 7.3
Nevada – 7.6
New Mexico – 8.7
New York – 7.7
North Carolina – 7.3
Ohio – 7.8
Oregon – 8.0
Pennsylvania – 8.1
Washington – 7.6
West Virginia – 8.9
Los Angeles County – 9.9
New York City – 8.0

And here’s the list of Super Tuesday states with their underemployment rates and delegates:

Alabama – 5.4 – 52 delegates.
Arkansas – 7.1 – “Sanders Should Win” This is one/10th point below target. – 31 delegates
California – 8.3 – “Sanders Should Win” – 415 delegates
Colorado – 6.3 – 67 delegates
Maine – 6.6 – 24 delegates
Massachusetts – 5.9 – 91 delegates
Minnesota – 5.9 – 75 delegates
North Carolina – 7.3 – “Sanders Should Win” – 110 delegates
Oklahoma – 6.1 – 37 delegates
Tennessee – 5.8 – 44 delegates
Texas – 6.8 – 228 delegates
Utah – 5.2 – 29 delegates
Vermont – 5.5 – 16 delegates
Virginia – 6.2 – 99 delegates

So, if the theory holds, those state above marked “Sanders Should Win” (America Samoa was left out) will turn out for the Vermont Senator. But, that leaves just three states: if Vice President takes the other 11 states, that causes the delegate count to look something like this:

Assuming a “winner take all” situation in each state, we have this outcome:

Sanders delegate take: 556 vs. Biden delegate take: 762

So, we see that Bernie Sanders’ pattern of wins does seem to match the social income imbalance that gave rise to his candidacy, in the first place. If Super Tuesday does turn out to resemble this pattern, the Democrats should work to make the party’s overall message match Sanders in states with high underemployment rates.


Here’s the outcome versus prediction:

Alabama – 5.4 – 52 delegates. ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS.
Arkansas – 7.1 – “Sanders Should Win” This is one/10th point below target. – 31 delegates ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS *
California – 8.3 – “Sanders Should Win” – 415 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: SANDERS WINNING
Colorado – 6.3 – 67 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: SANDERS WINS *
Maine – 6.6 – 24 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINNING
Massachusetts – 5.9 – 91 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS
Minnesota – 5.9 – 75 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS
North Carolina – 7.3 – “Sanders Should Win” – 110 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS *
Oklahoma – 6.1 – 37 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS
Tennessee – 5.8 – 44 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS
Texas – 6.8 – 228 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS
Utah – 5.2 – 29 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: SANDERS WINS *
Vermont – 5.5 – 16 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: SANDERS WINS
Virginia – 6.2 – 99 delegates – ACTUAL OUTCOME: BIDEN WINS

Of the 14 outcomes listed, only on 4 occasions, marked with the asterisk, did the predictive model not work, so it claims a 71.4 percent success rate. Since 66 percent is considered a statistical “sure thing”, we can say that the underemployment rate is a factor in Bernie Sanders’ election success and failure. The reason why Biden did so well in the South is that it less expensive to live there, and thus the argument for Sanders “Democratic Socialism” is far less effective than in California.

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