Gavin Newsom Widens Google Trends Governor’s Race Lead On Day Of California Primary

In this update, and on the day of the California Primary, Gavin Newsom, already the polling-front-runner, has pulled even further ahead in Google Trends search intensity. The current California Liutenant Governor had a search intensity ranking of 92 when Zennie62Media last compared where the gubenatorial candidate were in Google Trends; now he’s at a full 100. By contrast, his competitors have not made significant gains, though the picture has changed to a degree, especially for former Los Angeles Governor Antonio Villaraigosa.

In total, the picture looks like this now: Newsom 100, Villaraigosa 35, Allen 26, Chiang 21, Cox 6.

Where Villiaragosa was tied with California Assemblyman Travis Allen, now he’s opened up a 12 point lead, 35 to 23. But given that the pair have traded positions second and third, the view of this blogger is, it’s not time to declare second place for Villaraigosa over Allen. The reason is two fold: first, the lead that’s enjoyed by Villaraigosa may be due to last minute searches by those most likely to vote for him over Allen. But given the poor turnout record of some, particularly Latinos in California, that may not translate to a clear win for the once LA Mayor.

UPDATE: the latest report has Villaraigosa’s lead dropping from 35 to 26, and that was just moments ago – Allen remains at 23, just three points back. The chart above first formed today at 12 noon PST; it’s now 1:53 PM PST.

And in this update, California State Treasurer John Chaing was replaced by Former California schools boss Delaine Eastin to see how she would compare with John Cox. As you can see, she too beats Cox as of now, although Cox has held a small lead over her for the majority of the campaign.

It would be easier to give second place to Villaraigosa if he held on to it consistently over the past week, but that has not been the case. Thus, the only reasonable choice is to say that the race for second place is still anyone’s call between Allen and Antonio Villaraigosa. But one thing’s clear: John Cox, said to be in second place in a traditional poll, will not be the second place finisher. So why did he poll so well in the Berkeley-IGS report released on May 31st?

From a Google Trends perspective, the only answer is that the survey only polled 2,100 people; the voting population in California consists of 18,055,783 registered voters, according to the California Secretary of State. Since its a fair bet Google search has been used by arguably every one of those registered voters at some point in time, the activities of that group with respect to interest in a candidate is arguably more accurately reflected by Google Trends, than by a snapshot poll of a microscopic set of people.

Why Is John Cox Stuck At The Bottom

The reason John Cox has been at the bottom is the search comparison is simple: the other candidates are all public officials, or in the case of Villaraigosa, was LA Mayor, and then worked to keep his public image active with appearances and involvement in many causes in California. By contrast, John Cox has no such record, and thus, a comparatively minimal media footprint.

Stay tuned.

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