It’s Gavin Newsom versus the out-of-nowhere political star that is John Cox, or “John H. Cox American Accountant” as he’s referred to on Google Trends. And that leads to the raison d’etre for this post: to determine if Google Trends got it wrong, or if this blogger, me, got Google Trends wrong, or something in between.
I want to thank a viewer for pointing out, in the comments to another related video, that if I tried just “John Cox” as a search term, rather that the “John H. Cox American Accountant” choice that I selected on Google News, then a different result would appear. But before I continue, let me catch you up on what I am writing about.
In brief, I was intrigued with the idea that Google Trends (which attempts to show what search terms a population is looking for using the Google Search Engine at any given time) could be a predictor of elections other than that for POTUS. When I ran my initial tests of this theory, I ran Google Trends using the top candidates (not all of the 33, as Google Trends can only fit five at a time, and the others listed failed to move the search needle to even be worth noting) and with “John H. Cox American Accountant”, the Google Trends feedback had “John H. Cox American Accountant” with low search intensity.
But then the viewer, who goes by a YouTube name that’s not his or her real name, and is xxTheGhilliedGhostxx chimed in with “I noticed your results show “John H. Cox.” If you put simply “John Cox” into Google trends, his numbers are much higher. I just compared the top 4 candidates on Google Trends, and as of right now, the results are: Gavin Newsom:100 John Cox: 35 Travis Allen: 31 Antonio Villaraigosa: 26 I predict it will be Newsom vs Cox in November.”
So I tried his suggestion, but used john cox, and for a California-focused Google Trends search test, and received the same low result as for “John H. Cox American Accountant”. Then, it occurred to me to replicate what the viewer did exactly as it was done. I didn’t have a screen shot of the YouTube’s result, so I had to guess that I should capitalize the J and the C in John Cox. That made the difference, and the result is below.
With that chart, we see a result more in line with what the UC Berkeley Institurte of Governmental Studies department learned after their poll published May 31st: that Cox was competitive with Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Travis Allen, and over John Chiang. But that said, Cox never had a giant bump that was in Newsom territory. Moreover, the chart, for some reason, only goes to Monday, June 4th, but even then, it’s a pure assumption to think Cox’s 34 intensity (which still put him below Allen and Villaraigosa but by five points and two points respectively) would have jumped to say “50”. It brings the question, how could Cox emerge to almost beat Newsom in the real election, but not have that reflected in Google Trends.
One possible answer has to do with the low voter turnout. Google Trends captures what people search for, but for politics in local elections is not the perfect predictor of what will happen in an off-year local contest. That said, the overall fact is, Google Trends got it mosly right – but not turnout. And while the Berkeley-IGS poll didn’t predict voter turnout directly, it did indirectly via the result. Berkeley-IGS calling mostly traditional landlines rather than cell phones told us that older voters mostly likely to get to the polls, were going to make Cox the second place choice – and that’s what happened. But even then, it did not capture the pure enthusiam for Cox.
So, while Google Trends didn’t get it exacly right, it did reflect the degree of interest in the candidates and it predicted Newsom’s win. Google Trends can’t replace a good Berkeley-IGS poll, but should be used in conjunction with it: Google Trends shows degree of interest in a candidate, the Berkeley-IGS poll methodology shows the degree that turnout, low or high, will effect an election.
OaklandNewsNow.com Oakland News Now @OaklandNewsNow oaklandnewsblog.com is by Zennie62Media, Inc. with CEO Zenophon Abraham AKA Zennie62 YouTube Oakland News Now Commentary Vlog YouTube Partner, Oakland California blogger / vlogger Zennie Abraham @ZennieAbraham . Hire @Zennie62Media, Inc to tell your story.
Zennie62Media uses smartphones enabling our 98-blog network, specially-made blogs, website, social media platforms covering politics, news, sports, and tech, @Oaklandcitynews, Oakland City Council, North Oakland, East Oakland, Montclair, Adams Point, Uptown Oakland food culture, BBQ Becky Dr. Jennifer Schulte , Jogger Joe Henry Sintay, Oakland crime news, Bank of America loans, COVID-19 updates, homeless news, SF Bay Area news, Oakland artists, @breakingnewsbayarea, Emeryville, Atlanta news, Chevron Ecuador, Steven Donziger, Fayetteville GA news, @FayettevilleGA Fayette County Georgia, San Francisco news, San Jose news. Also, Academy Awards / The Oscars entertainment,Tom Hanks, Skyline High School, Oakland Sports, Oakland Panthers, Oakland Coliseum, Honda of Oakland, Oakland Arena, Oakland Raiders, Las Vegas Raiders, Las Vegas Stadium Construction, Allegiant Stadium, NBA, NFL, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, CES Las Vegas tech, San Diego Comic Con sci-fi. @GrandLakeTheater @LasVegasHotels, Penny Dreadful City of Angels, Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Zennie62Media has content development and online reputation management clients like Insight Terminal Solutions @InsightTerminalSolutions and The Oakland Bulk and Oversized Terminal, with California Capital Investment Group Managing Partner Phillip Phil Tagami @PhilTagami co-developer, @JohnSiegel John Siegel as ITS CEO exposing coal and Oakland fake news. Zennie62 has helped Maria Ayerdi Kaplan @MariaAyerdiKaplan, developer of Salesforce Transit Center in San Francisco, Kofi Bonner, and Flowsent capture the Oakland Cannabis Delivery Dispensary @OaklandCannabis market with fitness model female bodybuilder Laura Ehlen and weedmaps help. We’ve partnered with CoLoursTV, CNN, YouTube, Google, NBC, Vice, Oakland Post / Post News Group, Landis PR, and other media organizations. Competition: The SF Chronicle, Las Vegas Review Journal, East Bay Express, Oakland Tribune, Oakland Voices
Zennie62 interviews celebrities like Lars Frykman, Bill Boyd, Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, Raiders Owner Mark Davis, Raider Legend Raymond Chester, Brianna Noble, NY Giants Owner John Mara, @SportsTalk Tony Bruno, Sports Agent Leigh Steinberg, Oakland City Charter, Henry Sintay Oakland’s “Jogger Joe”, Cam Newton, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Tanis Parenteau, Scott Kidd, Actors Richard Dreyfuss, Lou Ferrigno, Lindsey Vonn hot legs, Blake Neely, SDCC’s David Glanzer, Publicist Edward Lozzi. Topics like Oakland Apartment rents, WordPress, CVS Mail Order and Pharmacy, Kaiser Permanente, Rosa’s Home Cooking Restaurant, Oakland Community Kitchens, Lukas Oakland, Maria Alderete, The Studio Cafe, Black Lives Matter, Oakland hangman noose problem, Rayzin Schnitzer 11th Street Diner Miami, George Floyd Protests, Oakland City Charter, @OaklandCityCouncil, Mountain View, CA, London, England, Moscow, Russia, blacks in tech, Tackett Bartlett LLP @TackettBartlettLLP, Jameis Winston, Pinewood Studios Atlanta, Jeff Miller, Joceyln Moore, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Regina Jackson, Barry Donelan, Yanqing Ye, UC Berkeley, NFL Owners Meeting, NFL Annual Meeting, Eli Lilly Coronavirus COVID-19 vacine, Summit Bank Oakland, Bank of America, Oakland protestors arrested, Juneteenth Rally, Len Raphael, Southern Evangelical Seminary, Richard Land, Mike Hutchinson Oakland, Alison Roessler
Indeed, airbnb, pinterest, credit karma, southwest airlines, mcdonalds, united airlines, drudge report, astros, 49ers, frontier airlines, tractor supply, warriors, alaska airlines, buffalo wild wings, horoscope, shein, raiders, uhaul, ted bundy, nba finals, michaels coupon, cheesecake factory, golden state warriors, kevin durant, realtor com, stephen curry, walgreens photo, drudge, facebook sign in, funny memes, hbo go, hbo now, oakland raiders, vistaprint, braves, san francisco 49ers, monday night football, newegg, travis scott, zion williamson, kohls coupons, lands end, nancy pelosi, kohls coupon, hotwire, kamala harris, harry potter, giants, craigslist sf, california earthquake, boston weather, las vegas weather, sf giants, san francisco weather, san francisco, los angeles weather, lord and taylor, jimmy garoppolo, hawaiian airlines, detective pikachu, clint eastwood, bed bath and beyond coupon, abercrombie, pewdiepie, sfgate, sc lottery, san diego weather, san antonio weather, southwest flights, pikachu, golden state, myatt, just mercy, french open, colourpop, cam newton, anna kendrick, klay thompson, harbor freight coupon, robin williams, portland weather, phoenix weather, north carolina, macbook, how, bath and body works coupon, googleflights, daytona 500, daily horoscope, ashton kutcher, andrew luck, alamo drafthouse, 49ers schedule, trump tweets, thanksgiving,How to, What is, How do I, What do I, Who is?
Also Pat Abraham Yerger, Patricia Yerger, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf @LibbySchaaf, Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas, Dan Kalb of District 1, Loren Taylor, Lynette Gibson McElhaney, Sheng Thao, Noel Gallo, Robert Bobb, Rebecca Kaplan, Larry Reid, Tech Entrepreneur Sarah Lacy, Personal Trainer Megan Avalon Buffed Barbie, Social Media Pioneer Marc Canter, SF Mayor London Breed, Scott McKibben, CA Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, Schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Berkeley Councilmember Ben Bartlett @BenBartlett, Raiders Charles Woodson, 49ers Jerry Rice, Grand Lake Theater Oakland Owner Allan Michaan, Irvine City Manager John Russo, Guy Fieri, Oakland CAO Edward Reiskin, Raiders Coach Jon Gruden Running Back Josh Jacobs, Stanford HC David Shaw, Tri Ngo, Atlanta Falcons Coach Dan Quinn, Michael Mina, NFL Draft Mr. Irrelevant Head Melanie Fitch, Paul Satala. Subscribe to Zennie Abraham’s @Zennie62 YouTube Channel, today!